Barely two months ago, Kerala was looking like a striking outlier in the battle against coronavirus in India. But cases have surged in the last few weeks, and the state government is now saying the virus is locally transmitting through coastal communities, the first such admission by officials in any state since the beginning of the pandemic in India.
"The real surge in Kerala is happening now. The virus had earlier been curbed in a controlled situation when the state's borders were closed," Dr Lal Sadasivan, a Washington-based infectious disease specialist, told me.
In January, Kerala reported India's first Covid-19 case, a medical student who returned from Wuhan in China, where the pandemic began. The number of cases rose steadily, and it became a hotspot. But in March, half a dozen states were reporting more cases than the picturesque southern state. By May, sticking faithfully to the contagion control playbook of test, trace and isolate and involving grassroots networks, Kerala brought down its case count drastically - there were days when it reported no new cases. "The mark of zero", The Hindu newspaper rhapsodized in an editorial about the containment effort. There were breathless stories about the state flattening the curve. "I remember saying that Kerala had achieved a viral miracle," says Jayaprakash Muliyil, a leading epidemiologist.
The celebrations were clearly premature. Kerala took 110 days to report its first thousand cases. In mid-July, it was reporting around 800 infections a day. As of 20 July, Kerala's caseload had crossed 12,000, with 43 reported deaths. More than 170,000 people were in quarantine, at home and in hospitals.
The easing of the lockdown led to many people moving out of their homes and not taking enough precautions. "Some amount of laxity was expected as people have begun going out to work in most areas. We are trying to motivate them to be safe," Dr B Ekbal, head of an expert panel advising the government on prevention of the virus, told me.
Some critics say testing slowed after the caseload fell in what they believe was a sign of complacency. These days Kerala is testing more than 9,000 samples a day, up from 663 in April.
